2009/2010 Team Preview: Denver Nuggets October 1, 2009
Posted by thebigfundamental in NBA.Tags: 2009/2010 Preview, Denver Nuggets, NBA
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Of all the teams that have come 180 in a season, Denver of the 2008/2009 season were one of the best transformations I have ever seen. They went from being the “All-thugs” of the NBA with a list that was more famous for misdemeanors than basketball ability to the darlings of the playoffs, the team everyone wanted to win simply because they were the toad that turned into Prince Charming. The question hanging over Denvers head this season however is; was it a fluke? It’s a tough question and some may even go as far as to say, unfair, but we’ll keep this in the back of our minds as we go to the depth chart:
"Hmmm... Where too from here?" Hopefully the Finals for Denver fans.
PG: Chauncey Billups, Anthony Carter, Ty Lawson
SG: JR Smith, Aaron Afflalo
SF: Carmello Anthony, Renaldo Balkman, James White
PF: Kenyon Martin, Malik Allen
C: Nene Hilario, Chris Andersen, Johan Petro
That starting 5 is one of the best in the league with either Andersen or Smith coming off the bench to give defense or offense – take your pick. This is handy for coach Karl as it means he can choose what type of start he wants his team to have, then use the bench to counteract as needed. He also has energy players such as Balkman, Lawson and Afflalo if for some reason the 6th player doesn’t do what they’re supposed too. So given all that, why are people everywhere saying that last season was a fluke? Well, it’s a case of zebra’s and their stripes – here’s why I think the stripes have changed for good:
Reason #1: Chauncey Billups is still there and has had a full pre-season with the team. This can not be emphasized enough. Last season Billups’ impact was immediate WITHOUT really getting to know his team. Such was the contrast between he and Iverson, coupled with the respect he demands from those around him, Billups transformed the mindset of the entire team. This season he’ll be there in camp – passing on his knowledge, mentoring the young guys, and getting everyone to follow the system to the most minute detail. Expect this to improve the Nuggets half-court sets dramatically (especially given that before Billups, there really was no such thing as a half-court set in Denver!!!) and for them to have set options ready for all their opponents.
If Carmello can stay healthy, he can be the league leader in scoring this season
Reason #2: Carmello Anthony had an average season and they still made the West Finals. Even by Melo’s own admission his 2008/2009 season was average. His statistics fell across the board, but he improved dramatically in a particular area that had been lacking for his entire career – leadership. Melo finally showed that he had the ability to show up when it counted (I’ll never forget that shot against Dallas), and keep his team-mates heads in the game (rather than the complete opposite). Now he knows he’s capable, I’m sure this season he’ll be looking to mesh his two worlds – the old high powered, unstoppable scoring machine, with the more-aware, mature, floor leader. Add too that he’ll probably look to hit the boards harder this year and you have a pretty scary prospect for other SF’s in the league and even PF’s who attempt to go “out” to guard his now deadly jumper. My prediction is Melo to lead the NBA in scoring this season and in doing so, lead the Nuggets back to the West Finals.
If the team does have weaknesses, they’re defense and injuries. The defense is getting better no doubt, but the injuries have plagued this team constantly since Melo arrived. If they have a healthy season they’re too versatile, and deep a team to not be considered in the Wests top 4, or even Top 2. My prediction is for them to win the Northwest division, get second seed in the West, and sail on through to the finals where they’ll meet LA or San Antonio.
Baseline Cut's 
I’m not so sure on this…
I think the loss of Kleiza is bigger than anyone is admitting, and I’m not sure that JR Smith’s quite ready to be what’s expected of him.
I believe that their depth is suspect – an injury to the oft-injured Nene or likewise prone Kenyon Martin leaves them VERY short-handed.
Compare this to the depth at the other Western powers (LA, SA… and even Dallas), and I think Denver are going to do pretty much what they did last season.
Maybe.
They might get that second seeding, but I think that they match up very poorly against either LA or SA.
Denver are a good team, but their off-season moves (or rather… lack thereof) left me disappointed.
You made some good points. There transformation last season after Chauncey arrived was definately one of the stories of last season. I was highly critical of the move at the time, but it’s turned out to be a masterstroke. They came very close to knocking off the eventual champions Lakers (Number 1 on the agenda in training camp – How to inbound the ball!).
Here are the issues I see though with the Nuggets
They had a VERY quiet off-season, one of the most quiet of all the NBA teams. They lost Jones, but added Affalo, so I feel they upgraded there. Klieza was a loss, but not as much as malice suspects. He had a very average year last year, and I like to think Joey Graham (he signed with them last week TBF) will be a reasonable replacement. And they made a VERY nice little move in getting Ty Lawson. He’ll provide some spark and enthusiasm from the bench, and his development will be fast-tracked working with Chauncey.
The issue for the Nuggets though is they are banking on the presumption that their improvement will come from within rather then through free agents. They have some young core players who can step up their game next season. Every year we say it, but JR Smith could explode. Nene played his first full season, showed why he got that big contract a few years ago, and should improve next season.
And you made a very good point about Carmelo in that he had a average year by his standards. He finally learnt that he doesn’t always necessarily be the star player in the team, but showed in the playoffs that he can still be the man. He’s set for a huge year next season, top 10 MVP in my opinion.
Their main worry is depth, in particularly in the front court. I don’t think Nene is the injury liability that some people still think. I think some people still confuse the fact that he had cancer, and not an actual injury. He showed his back at full health last season and should be fine next season. However, K-Mart is still a worry. He showed he can still contribute, but if he goes down, it means more minutes for the Birdman, and then who…Malik Allen?? Ugh.
As for my prediction, I think they are still more then capable of making the Western Finals, but they won’t finish 2nd. I doubt they’ll even got Top 4. Reason – The Nuggets have one of the toughest opening 10 games of the season, and they’ll be without JR for the first 7 and Balkman for the first 3. They depth will be pushed and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lost 5-6 of their first 10 games. And with the West being so tight and the Blazers breathing down their neck, and think these early losses might hurt them. But as long as they make the playoffs healthy and in form, then they can beat anyone